{"id":81,"date":"2020-12-14T07:26:28","date_gmt":"2020-12-14T00:26:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/hoasen.ntc33.net\/lgtmqt\/chuyen-de-so-04-canh-tranh-anh-huong-kinh-te-my-trung-o-dong-nam-a-va-doi-sach-cua-viet-nam\/"},"modified":"2024-01-31T09:35:00","modified_gmt":"2024-01-31T02:35:00","slug":"chuyen-de-so-04-canh-tranh-anh-huong-kinh-te-my-trung-o-dong-nam-a-va-doi-sach-cua-viet-nam","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ntc33.net\/lgtmqt\/chuyen-de-so-04-canh-tranh-anh-huong-kinh-te-my-trung-o-dong-nam-a-va-doi-sach-cua-viet-nam\/","title":{"rendered":"CHUY\u00caN \u0110\u00ca\u0300 S\u00d4\u0301 04: C\u1ea0NH TRANH \u1ea2NH H\u01af\u1edeNG KINH T\u1ebe M\u1ef8 – TRUNG \u1ede \u0110\u00d4NG NAM \u00c1 V\u00c0 \u0110\u1ed0I S\u00c1CH C\u1ee6A VI\u1ec6T NAM"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
C\u1ea0NH TRANH \u1ea2NH H\u01af\u1edeNG KINH T\u1ebe M\u1ef8 – TRUNG \u1ede \u0110\u00d4NG NAM \u00c1 <\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n V\u00c0 \u0110\u1ed0I S\u00c1CH C\u1ee6A VI\u1ec6T NAM<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n T\u00d3M T\u1eaeT<\/strong><\/p>\n Trong l\u1ecbch s\u1eed th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi hi\u1ec7n \u0111\u1ea1i, \u0110\u00f4ng Nam \u00c1 lu\u00f4n l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t trong nh\u1eefng khu v\u1ef1c c\u00f3 \u00fd ngh\u0129a \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c trong ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch \u0111\u1ed1i ngo\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a c\u1ea3 Hoa K\u1ef3 v\u00e0 Trung Qu\u1ed1c. B\u1eb1ng c\u00e1c ph\u00e2n t\u00edch d\u1eef li\u1ec7u d\u00f2ng \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp (FDI), gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb xu\u1ea5t nh\u1eadp kh\u1ea9u hai chi\u1ec1u gi\u1eefa USA, PRC v\u1edbi c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia \u0110\u00f4ng Nam \u00c1, kh\u00e1i qu\u00e1t c\u00e1c c\u01a1 ch\u1ebf h\u1ee3p t\u00e1c th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i song ph\u01b0\u01a1ng gi\u1eefa Hoa K\u1ef3, Trung Qu\u1ed1c v\u00e0 c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc \u0110\u00f4ng Nam \u00c1, c\u00e1c c\u01a1 ch\u1ebf h\u1ee3p t\u00e1c kinh t\u1ebf \u0111a ph\u01b0\u01a1ng khu v\u1ef1c, ch\u00e2u l\u1ee5c v\u00e0 th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi, l\u01b0\u1ee3c kh\u1ea3o c\u00e1c si\u00eau d\u1ef1 \u00e1n kinh t\u1ebf c\u00f3 t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng thay \u0111\u1ed5i \u0111\u1ecba kinh t\u1ebf, \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb \u0110\u00f4ng Nam \u00c1 c\u1ee7a Hoa K\u1ef3, Trung Qu\u1ed1c, nh\u00f3m nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng g\u00f3p ph\u1ea7n l\u00e0m r\u00f5 h\u00ecnh \u1ea3nh c\u1ea1nh tranh \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng kinh t\u1ebf M\u1ef9 – Trung \u1edf \u0110\u00f4ng Nam \u00c1 hi\u1ec7n nay, \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi c\u00f3 c\u00e1c khuy\u1ebfn ngh\u1ecb <\/em>\u0111\u1ed1i s\u00e1ch c\u1ee7a <\/em>Vi\u1ec7t Nam tr\u01b0\u1edbc t\u1ea7m \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng kinh t\u1ebf Hoa K\u1ef3 v\u00e0 Trung Qu\u1ed1c trong khu v\u1ef1c.<\/em><\/p>\n 1. M\u1edf \u0111\u1ea7u<\/strong><\/p>\n Quy\u1ec1n l\u1ef1c l\u00e0 kh\u00e1i ni\u1ec7m tr\u1ecdng t\u00e2m trong l\u00fd thuy\u1ebft quan h\u1ec7 qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf b\u1edfi \u201ckh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng khi\u1ebfn nh\u1eefng ch\u1ee7 th\u1ec3 kh\u00e1c h\u00e0nh x\u1eed theo m\u1ed9t \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng h\u01b0\u1edbng mong mu\u1ed1n\u201d (Payne, 2013, tr.25), \u0111\u00e2y l\u00e0 m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc v\u00e0 c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o khao kh\u00e1t h\u01b0\u1edbng \u0111\u1ebfn, l\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n \u0111\u1ea3m b\u1ea3o an ninh v\u00e0 l\u00e0 s\u1ef1 kh\u1eb3ng \u0111\u1ecbnh t\u1ea7m \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng, v\u1ecb th\u1ebf c\u1ee7a qu\u1ed1c gia tr\u00ean b\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ed3 ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf. Quy\u1ec1n l\u1ef1c c\u1ee9ng \u0111\u1eb7c tr\u01b0ng l\u00e0 s\u1ef1 \u0111e d\u1ecda v\u00e0 d\u1ee5 d\u1ed7, c\u01b0\u1ee1ng ch\u1ebf th\u00f4ng qua s\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1, \u00e1p l\u1ef1c kinh t\u1ebf, s\u1ef1 tr\u1eebng ph\u1ea1t bu\u1ed9c ph\u1ea3i khu\u1ea5t ph\u1ee5c (Mearsheimer, Campbell & O\u2019Hanlon, 2006; Wilson, 2008).<\/p>\n Kinh t\u1ebf \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c xem l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t nh\u00e2n t\u1ed1 quan tr\u1ecdng t\u1ea1o l\u1eadp n\u00ean quy\u1ec1n l\u1ef1c c\u1ee9ng c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t qu\u1ed1c gia, m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 v\u00e0 vi\u1ec7n tr\u1ee3, khuy\u1ebft t\u00e1n ngu\u1ed3n v\u1ed1n v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng l\u00ean m\u1ed9t qu\u1ed1c gia kh\u00e1c l\u00e0 t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 thu\u1eadn v\u1edbi nhau (Viotti & Kauppi, 2013). Tr\u01b0\u1edbc xu h\u01b0\u1edbng to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u h\u00f3a, Ahmed (1995) \u0111\u00e3 nh\u00ecn nh\u1eadn l\u1ee3i \u00edch kinh t\u1ebf ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng gi\u1eef vai tr\u00f2 s\u1ed1ng c\u00f2n trong c\u00e1c m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf, c\u00f9ng g\u00f3c \u0111\u1ed9 n\u00e0y th\u00ec Spyros Economides & Wilson (2001) trong quy\u1ec3n \u201cY\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 kinh t\u1ebf trong quan h\u1ec7 qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf\u201d cho r\u1eb1ng ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch \u0111\u1ed1i ngo\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t qu\u1ed1c gia ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng b\u1ecb th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y b\u1edfi c\u00e1c c\u00e2n nh\u1eafc th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i v\u00e0 s\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh kinh t\u1ebf th\u1eadt s\u1ef1 \u0111\u00e3 mang l\u1ea1i \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng nhi\u1ec1u h\u01a1n s\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 b\u1edfi s\u1ef1 ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c, k\u1ebft n\u1ed1i v\u00e0 t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u00e1c l\u1eabn nhau gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf ng\u00e0y nay \u0111\u00e3 r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng.<\/p>\n V\u00f9ng tranh ch\u1ea5p chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0110\u00f4ng Nam \u00c1 s\u1ebd ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng n\u00f3ng c\u1ea3 tr\u00ean th\u1ef1c \u0111\u1ecba l\u1eabn b\u00e0n ngo\u1ea1i giao. T\u1eeb th\u1ef1c ti\u1ec5n \u0111\u00f3, v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 kh\u1ea3o s\u00e1t s\u1ef1 hi\u1ec7n di\u1ec7n kinh t\u1ebf c\u1ee7a Hoa K\u1ef3 v\u00e0 PRC t\u1ea1i \u0110\u00f4ng Nam \u00c1 \u0111\u1ec3 g\u00f3p ph\u1ea7n l\u00e0m r\u00f5 hi\u1ec7n di\u1ec7n kinh t\u1ebf c\u1ee7a USA v\u00e0 PRC \u1edf \u0110\u00f4ng Nam \u00c1 l\u00e0 c\u1ea7n thi\u1ebft.<\/p>\n V\u1edbi m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau \u0111\u00e1nh \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng c\u1ee7a USA v\u00e0 PRC t\u1eeb g\u00f3c nh\u00ecn kinh t\u1ebf, t\u00e1c gi\u1ea3 x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u nh\u01b0 h\u00ecnh 1, USA v\u00e0 PRC s\u1ebd \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u00e2n t\u00edch so s\u00e1nh d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh mang \u0111\u1ebfn l\u1ee3i \u00edch kinh t\u1ebf cho 11 qu\u1ed1c gia \u0110\u00f4ng Nam \u00c1 (qu\u1ed1c gia X) l\u00e0 Brunei, Campuchia, Indonesia, L\u00e0o, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Th\u00e1i Lan, Timor Leste, Vi\u1ec7t Nam. Theo l\u00fd thuy\u1ebft ch\u1ee7 ngh\u0129a hi\u1ec7n th\u1ef1c m\u1edbi th\u00ec kinh t\u1ebf USA v\u00e0 PRC cho \u0111i s\u1ebd \u0111\u1ed5i l\u1ea1i s\u1ef1 th\u1eeba nh\u1eadn \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng c\u1ee7a qu\u1ed1c gia X, l\u1ee3i \u00edch kinh t\u1ebf c\u00e0ng nhi\u1ec1u th\u00ec m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng c\u00e0ng l\u1edbn, gi\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 kh\u00e1c c\u1ea5u th\u00e0nh quy\u1ec1n l\u1ef1c kh\u00e1c kh\u00f4ng t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ebfn m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u n\u00e0y.<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n H\u00ecnh 1. M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u<\/strong><\/p>\n Quan h\u1ec7 kinh t\u1ebf song ph\u01b0\u01a1ng gi\u1eefa hai qu\u1ed1c gia th\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c xem x\u00e9t v\u1edbi ba tr\u1ee5 c\u1ed9t l\u00e0 quan h\u1ec7 h\u1ee3p t\u00e1c kinh t\u1ebf, th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 v\u1edbi c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn quan s\u00e1t nh\u01b0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp n\u01b0\u1edbc ngo\u00e0i (foreign direct investment \u2013 FDI), \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 gi\u00e1n ti\u1ebfp n\u01b0\u1edbc ngo\u00e0i (foreign indirect investment \u2013 FII), kim ng\u1ea1ch xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u (export) v\u00e0 nh\u1eadp kh\u1ea9u (import), c\u00e1n c\u00e2n th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i (balance of trade), vi\u1ec7n tr\u1ee3 qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf (international aid), c\u00e1c hi\u1ec7p \u0111\u1ecbnh th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i song ph\u01b0\u01a1ng (bilateral trade agreements). Quan h\u1ec7 kinh t\u1ebf \u0111a ph\u01b0\u01a1ng gi\u1eefa nhi\u1ec1u qu\u1ed1c gia \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh tr\u00ean c\u01a1 s\u1edf c\u00e1c t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf, c\u00e1c c\u01a1 ch\u1ebf h\u1ee3p t\u00e1c t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh, c\u00e1c hi\u1ec7p \u0111\u1ecbnh kinh t\u1ebf th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i v\u1edbi s\u1ef1 tham gia c\u1ee7a t\u1eeb ba qu\u1ed1c gia tr\u1edf l\u00ean. Trong ph\u1ea1m vi b\u00e1o c\u00e1o n\u00e0y, t\u00e1c gi\u1ea3 t\u1eadp trung ph\u00e2n t\u00edch th\u1ef1c tr\u1ea1ng v\u00e0 th\u1ea3o lu\u1eadn nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u s\u1ef1 hi\u1ec7n di\u1ec7n kinh t\u1ebf c\u1ee7a USA v\u00e0 PRC \u1edf \u0110\u00f4ng Nam \u00c1 d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean ngu\u1ed3n d\u1eef li\u1ec7u thu th\u1eadp v\u1ec1 (1) d\u00f2ng \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp (FDI), (2) gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb xu\u1ea5t (3) nh\u1eadp kh\u1ea9u gi\u1eefa USA, PRC v\u1edbi c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia \u0110\u00f4ng Nam \u00c1, (4) c\u00e1c c\u01a1 ch\u1ebf h\u1ee3p t\u00e1c kinh t\u1ebf song ph\u01b0\u01a1ng v\u00e0 (5) \u0111a ph\u01b0\u01a1ng.<\/p>\n 2. K\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u<\/strong><\/p>\n D\u00f2ng \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp (FDI)<\/em><\/strong> l\u00e0 c\u00e1c kho\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 d\u01b0\u1edbi h\u00ecnh th\u1ee9c s\u1edf h\u1eefu v\u00e0 ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t doanh nghi\u1ec7p (OECD, 2020), FDI c\u00f3 t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u00edch c\u1ef1c trong vi\u1ec7c ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n kinh t\u1ebf c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia c\u00f3 n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf \u0111ang ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n (Sarkodie & Strezov, 2019), \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi t\u1ea1o ra c\u00e1c li\u00ean k\u1ebft \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u00e0 l\u00e2u d\u00e0i gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf (OECD, 2020). FDI l\u00e0 ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u00e1c gi\u1ea3 nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u kh\u1ea3o s\u00e1t nh\u1eb1m l\u00e0m r\u00f5 s\u1ef1 tham gia c\u1ee7a USA v\u00e0 PRC trong vi\u1ec7c s\u00e1p nh\u1eadp v\u00e0 mua l\u1ea1i, x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng c\u01a1 s\u1edf m\u1edbi, t\u00e1i \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn ki\u1ebfm \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u1eeb ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng \u1edf c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia \u0110\u00f4ng Nam \u00c1.<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n Ngu\u1ed3n: fDi Markets<\/em><\/p>\n H\u00ecnh 2. T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 % FDI v\u00e0o \u0110\u00f4ng Nam \u00c1 giai \u0111o\u1ea1n 2003 – 2017<\/strong><\/p>\n H\u00ecnh 3 ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 % FDI v\u00e0o c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia khu v\u1ef1c \u0110\u00f4ng Nam \u00c1 trong giai \u0111o\u1ea1n 2003 \u2013 2017, ta d\u1ec5 d\u00e0ng nh\u1eadn th\u1ea5y r\u1eb1ng USA h\u01b0\u1edbng d\u00f2ng FDI m\u1ea1nh nh\u1ea5t v\u00e0o Th\u00e1i Lan v\u00e0 Myanmar, k\u1ebf \u0111\u1ebfn l\u00e0 Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia v\u00e0 Vi\u1ec7t Nam, PRC h\u01b0\u1edbng d\u00f2ng FDI m\u1ea1nh nh\u1ea5t v\u00e0o L\u00e0o, Campuchia, ti\u1ebfp sau l\u00e0 Myanmar, Indonesia, Malaysia v\u00e0 Philippines\u2026, \u0111\u00e1ng ch\u00fa \u00fd nh\u1ea5t l\u00e0 tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p c\u1ee7a Vi\u1ec7t Nam b\u1edfi t\u1ed5ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng FDI c\u1ee7a PRC v\u00e0 USA c\u1ed9ng l\u1ea1i v\u1eabn th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng FDI t\u1eeb Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n, H\u00e0n Qu\u1ed1c v\u00e0 n\u1ed9i kh\u1ed1i \u0110\u00f4ng Nam \u00c1 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0.<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n Ngu\u1ed3n: fDi Markets<\/em><\/p>\n H\u00ecnh 3. \u0110\u1ecbnh h\u01b0\u1edbng FDI v\u00e0o \u0110\u00f4ng Nam \u00c1 giai \u0111o\u1ea1n 2003 – 2017<\/strong><\/p>\n M\u1ed9t th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea v\u1ec1 FDI v\u00e0o \u0110\u00f4ng Nam \u00c1 \u1edf h\u00ecnh 4 cho th\u1ea5y trong giai \u0111o\u1ea1n 2003 \u2013 2017, USA \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 182 t\u1ef7 USD v\u00e0o \u0110\u00f4ng Nam \u00c1. PRC \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 123 t\u1ef7 USD ch\u1ee7 y\u1ebfu t\u1eadp trung v\u00e0o kim lo\u1ea1i. Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n l\u00e0 nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 FDI m\u1ea1nh nh\u1ea5t v\u00e0o \u0110\u00f4ng Nam \u00c1 giai \u0111o\u1ea1n 2003-2017.<\/p>\n Gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u v\u00e0 nh\u1eadp kh\u1ea9u<\/em><\/strong> c\u0169ng ph\u1ea3n \u1ea3nh quy\u1ec1n l\u1ef1c v\u00e0 v\u1ecb th\u1ebf qu\u1ed1c gia tr\u00ean tr\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf (Hausmann & Rodrik, 2006; Easterly & c\u1ed9ng s\u1ef1, 2009). Xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u l\u00e0 qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh b\u00e1n h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a hay d\u1ecbch v\u1ee5 c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t n\u01b0\u1edbc sang m\u1ed9t n\u01b0\u1edbc kh\u00e1c v\u00e0 thu v\u1ec1 ngo\u1ea1i t\u1ec7 th\u1eb7ng d\u01b0 (Joshi, 2005; Baldwin & Harrigan, 2007). Nh\u1eadp kh\u1ea9u \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c hi\u1ec3u l\u00e0 vi\u1ec7c mua s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m hay d\u1ecbch v\u1ee5 c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t qu\u1ed1c gia kh\u00e1c, nh\u1eadp kh\u1ea9u cho ph\u00e9p m\u1ed9t qu\u1ed1c gia c\u00f3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u00e1c s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m ho\u1eb7c d\u1ecbch v\u1ee5 m\u00e0 m\u00ecnh kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 ho\u1eb7c khan hi\u1ebfm, chi ph\u00ed cao, ch\u1ea5t l\u01b0\u1ee3ng th\u1ea5p t\u1eeb c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia kh\u00e1c (Lequiller & Blades, 2006; Baldwin & Harrigan, 2007).<\/p>\n B\u1ea3ng 2. So s\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb xu\u1ea5t nh\u1eadp kh\u1ea9u gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia \u0110\u00f4ng Nam \u00c1<\/strong><\/p>\n V\u1edbi PRC v\u00e0 USA n\u0103m 2018<\/strong><\/p>\n \u0110\u01a1n v\u1ecb: B = t\u1ef7 USD; M = tri\u1ec7u USD<\/em><\/p>\n Qu\u1ed1c gia<\/strong><\/p>\n (2018)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n Xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n Nh\u1eadp kh\u1ea9u<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n PRC<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n USA<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n PRC<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n USA<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n Brunei<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 237.26M (h\u1ea1ng 8)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 58.27M (h\u1ea1ng 9)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 1.64B (h\u1ea1ng 1)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 360.90M (h\u1ea1ng 4)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n Campuchia<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 609.28M (h\u1ea1ng 6)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 2.15B (h\u1ea1ng 1)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 4.55B (h\u1ea1ng 1)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 173.55M (h\u1ea1ng 10)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n Indonesia<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 27.13B (h\u1ea1ng 1)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 18.47B (h\u1ea1ng 3)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 45.54B (h\u1ea1ng 1)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 10.21B (h\u1ea1ng 5)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n L\u00e0o<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 1.26B (h\u1ea1ng 1)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 19.14M (h\u1ea1ng 10)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 733.11M (h\u1ea1ng 2)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 19.45M (h\u1ea1ng 9)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n Malaysia<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 34.41B (h\u1ea1ng 2)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 22.53B (h\u1ea1ng 3)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 43.32B (h\u1ea1ng 1)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 16.09B (h\u1ea1ng 3)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n Myanmar<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 5.56B (h\u1ea1ng 1)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 492.26M (h\u1ea1ng 7)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 6.22B (h\u1ea1ng 1)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 324.80M (h\u1ea1ng 10)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n Philippines<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 8.70B (h\u1ea1ng 4)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 10.55B (h\u1ea1ng 1)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 22.58B (h\u1ea1ng 1)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 8.30B (h\u1ea1ng 4)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n Singapore<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 50.40B (h\u1ea1ng 1)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 31.86B (h\u1ea1ng 5)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 49.63B (h\u1ea1ng 1)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 42.10B (h\u1ea1ng 3)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n Thailand<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 30.18B (h\u1ea1ng 1)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 28.12B (h\u1ea1ng 2)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 49.95B (h\u1ea1ng 1)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 15.20B (h\u1ea1ng 3)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n Timor Leste<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 2.05M (h\u1ea1ng 4)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 5.39M (h\u1ea1ng 2)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 88.94M (h\u1ea1ng 2)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 7.48M (h\u1ea1ng 13)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n Vi\u1ec7t Nam <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n 41.268B (h\u1ea1ng 2)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n 41.55B (h\u1ea1ng 1)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n 65,438B (h\u1ea1ng 1)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n 9.34B (h\u1ea1ng 5)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n T\u1ed5ng k\u1ebft<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n 5\/11 h\u1ea1ng 1<\/p>\n 2\/11 h\u1ea1ng 2<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 3\/11 h\u1ea1ng 1<\/p>\n 1\/11 h\u1ea1ng 2<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 9\/11 h\u1ea1ng 1<\/p>\n 1\/11 h\u1ea1ng 2<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 0\/11 h\u1ea1ng 1<\/p>\n 0\/11 h\u1ea1ng 2<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n Ngu\u1ed3n: Th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea c\u1ee7a t\u00e1c gi\u1ea3 t\u1eeb d\u1eef li\u1ec7u c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc<\/em><\/p>\n Trong quan h\u1ec7 kinh t\u1ebf qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf, vi\u1ec7c xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u v\u00e0 nh\u1eadp kh\u1ea9u t\u1eadp trung v\u00e0o m\u1ed9t qu\u1ed1c gia ngo\u00e0i nh\u1eefng m\u1eb7t t\u00edch c\u1ef1c \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ch\u1ec9 ra tr\u00ean \u0111\u00e2y, n\u00f3 c\u00f2n ph\u1ea3n \u1ea3nh m\u1ed9t s\u1ef1 ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c kinh t\u1ebf v\u00e0o th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u00e0 ngu\u1ed3n cung, c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia l\u00e0 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u00ednh ho\u1eb7c ngu\u1ed3n nh\u1eadp kh\u1ea9u ch\u00ednh \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c xem nh\u01b0 c\u00f3 quy\u1ec1n l\u1ef1c \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ebfn qu\u1ed1c gia \u0111\u1ed1i t\u00e1c.<\/p>\n B\u1ea3ng 2 cung c\u1ea5p d\u1eef li\u1ec7u th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia \u0110\u00f4ng Nam \u00c1 v\u00e0o th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng PRC v\u00e0 USA v\u00e0 gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb nh\u1eadp kh\u1ea9u h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a, d\u1ecbch v\u1ee5 t\u1eeb PRC v\u00e0 USA c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c \u0110\u00f4ng Nam \u00c1 n\u0103m 2018. Quan s\u00e1t gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia \u0110\u00f4ng Nam \u00c1 sang th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng PRC, ta nh\u1eadn th\u1ea5y \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi Indonesia, L\u00e0o, Myanmar, Singapore, Th\u00e1i Lan th\u00ec PRC l\u00e0 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u quan tr\u1ecdng nh\u1ea5t c\u00f2n USA l\u00e0 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u quan tr\u1ecdng nh\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a Campuchia, Philippines v\u00e0 Vi\u1ec7t Nam. Quan s\u00e1t gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb nh\u1eadp kh\u1ea9u t\u1eeb PRC v\u00e0 USA c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia \u0110\u00f4ng Nam \u00c1, nh\u1eadn th\u1ea5y r\u1eb1ng PRC l\u00e0 ngu\u1ed3n cung quan tr\u1ecdng nh\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a 9\/11 qu\u1ed1c gia, trong khi \u0111\u00f3 USA ch\u01b0a \u0111\u1ea1t th\u1ee9 h\u1ea1ng nh\u1ea5t v\u00e0 hai \u1edf c\u1ea3 11\/11 qu\u1ed1c gia. PRC l\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed1i t\u00e1c th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t v\u1edbi Vi\u1ec7t Nam trong khu v\u1ef1c. Th\u00f4ng qua c\u00e1c gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u v\u00e0 nh\u1eadp kh\u1ea9u v\u1edbi PRC v\u00e0 USA trong khu v\u1ef1c PRC \u0111ang l\u00e0 ngu\u1ed3n cung h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a, d\u1ecbch v\u1ee5 quan tr\u1ecdng nh\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a \u0110\u00f4ng Nam \u00c1, \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi c\u0169ng l\u00e0 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng quan tr\u1ecdng c\u1ee7a khu v\u1ef1c, so v\u1edbi USA, l\u1ee3i th\u1ebf v\u1ec1 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng, ngu\u1ed3n cung \u0111\u1ec1u nghi\u00eang v\u1ec1 PRC.<\/p>\n C\u00e1c c\u01a1 ch\u1ebf h\u1ee3p t\u00e1c th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i song ph\u01b0\u01a1ng v\u00e0 \u0111a ph\u01b0\u01a1ng <\/em><\/strong>g\u00f3p ph\u1ea7n kh\u00f4ng nh\u1ecf trong vi\u1ec7c \u0111\u1ecbnh h\u00ecnh s\u1ef1 \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng v\u00e0 s\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh kinh t\u1ebf c\u1ee7a Washington v\u00e0 B\u1eafc Kinh \u1edf \u0110\u00f4ng Nam \u00c1 (Bhattacharyay, 2012; Tr\u1ecbnh Th\u1ecb Hoa & Nguy\u1ec5n Th\u1ecb H\u1eb1ng, 2018; Otsuka & Sugihara, 2019), c\u00e1c m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 kinh t\u1ebf song ph\u01b0\u01a1ng gi\u1eefa PRC v\u00e0 USA v\u1edbi c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia \u0110\u00f4ng Nam \u00c1 th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n th\u00f4ng qua s\u1ef1 h\u1ee3p t\u00e1c gi\u1eefa hai qu\u1ed1c gia n\u00e0y v\u1edbi 11 n\u01b0\u1edbc \u0110\u00f4ng Nam \u00c1, tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp nh\u1ea5t l\u00e0 10 qu\u1ed1c gia ASEAN v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 c\u1ea1nh tranh gi\u1eefa PRC v\u00e0 USA \u1edf khu v\u1ef1c n\u00e0y. C\u00e1c c\u01a1 ch\u1ebf \u0111a ph\u01b0\u01a1ng th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n th\u00f4ng qua c\u00e1c t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c v\u00e0 c\u01a1 ch\u1ebf (di\u1ec5n \u0111\u00e0n, hi\u1ec7p \u0111\u1ecbnh, khu v\u1ef1c\u2026), c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3:<\/p>\n C\u00e1c c\u01a1 ch\u1ebf song ph\u01b0\u01a1ng r\u1ea5t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c PRC ch\u00fa tr\u1ecdng, PRC kh\u1eb3ng \u0111\u1ecbnh s\u1ef1 \u1ee7ng h\u1ed9 m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh trong quan h\u1ec7 song ph\u01b0\u01a1ng v\u1edbi Campuchia t\u1eeb nh\u1eefng n\u0103m 2010 v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng toan t\u00ednh li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn c\u1ea3ng Sihanoukville v\u00e0 c\u00e1c v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb ph\u1ee9c t\u1ea1p kh\u00e1c. PRC n\u00e2ng t\u1ea7m quan h\u1ec7 v\u1edbi Malaysia l\u00ean th\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed1i t\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c to\u00e0n di\u1ec7n t\u1eeb n\u0103m 2013. PRC mong mu\u1ed1n th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y quan h\u1ec7 h\u1ee3p t\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c v\u1edbi L\u00e0o t\u1eeb n\u0103m 2016 c\u00f3 li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn c\u00e1c th\u1ee7y \u0111i\u1ec7n tr\u00ean s\u00f4ng Mekong. PRC coi Th\u00e1i Lan l\u00e0 anh em trong quan h\u1ec7 qu\u1ed1c ph\u00f2ng v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u00f9ng l\u1ee9c v\u1edbi vi\u1ec7c coi quan h\u1ec7 v\u1edbi Philippines \u0111ang \u1edf giai \u0111o\u1ea1n v\u00e0ng t\u1eeb n\u0103m 2017. PRC th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y quan h\u1ec7 th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i v\u1edbi Indonesia v\u00e0 xem m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 n\u00e0y mang l\u1ea1i l\u1ee3i \u00edch v\u00e0 h\u00f2a b\u00ecnh cho th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi (2018). PRC cam k\u1ebft th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n h\u00e0nh lang kinh t\u1ebf t\u1eeb bi\u00ean gi\u1edbi PRC \u2013 Myanmar \u0111\u1ebfn v\u1ecbnh Bengal (2019). N\u0103m 2019, PRC k\u00fd v\u1edbi Singapore nhi\u1ec1u th\u1ecfa thu\u1eadn h\u1ee3p t\u00e1c, n\u00e2ng c\u1ea5p Hi\u1ec7p \u0111\u1ecbnh Th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i t\u1ef1 do Singapore \u2013 PRC.<\/p>\n S\u00e1ng ki\u1ebfn \u200b\u200bV\u00e0nh \u0111ai v\u00e0 Con \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng (Belt and Road Initiative) \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c B\u1eafc Kinh kh\u1edfi \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u1eeb n\u0103m 2013 v\u1edbi tr\u1ecdng t\u00e2m m\u1ed9t con \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng l\u00e0 \u201cCon \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng t\u01a1 l\u1ee5a h\u00e0ng h\u1ea3i th\u1ebf k\u1ef7 21\u201d (MSR), b\u1eaft ngu\u1ed3n t\u1eeb Ph\u00fac Ch\u00e2u (Fuzhou), k\u1ebft n\u1ed1i c\u00e1c th\u00e0nh ph\u1ed1 ven bi\u1ec3n bao g\u1ed3m H\u00e0 N\u1ed9i, Jakarta, Kuala Lumpur, Kolkata, Nairobi, k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch n\u00e0y b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u v\u1edbi c\u00e1c h\u1ee9a h\u1eb9n x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng c\u00e1c h\u1ea3i c\u1ea3ng v\u00e0 c\u01a1 s\u1edf Logistics hi\u1ec7n \u0111\u1ea1i, MSR tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ea1i b\u1ed9 ph\u1eadn c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia ASEAN b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1c ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn kinh t\u1ebf t\u1eeb h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3, \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp, vi\u1ec7n tr\u1ee3\u2026 b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch \u0111\u01b0a \u201cc\u1ee7 c\u00e0 r\u1ed1t\u201d v\u1ec1 l\u1ee3i \u00edch kinh t\u1ebf t\u1edbi c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed1i t\u00e1c tranh ch\u1ea5p, PRC mu\u1ed1n c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc li\u00ean quan \u201cth\u1ea7n ph\u1ee5c\u201d c\u00e1c y\u00eau s\u00e1ch v\u1ec1 ch\u1ee7 quy\u1ec1n c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh.<\/p>\n V\u1edbi USA, \u0110\u00f4ng Nam \u00c1 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c xem l\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec3m \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 quan tr\u1ecdng trong khu v\u1ef1c \u1ea4n \u0110\u1ed9 D\u01b0\u01a1ng \u2013 Th\u00e1i B\u00ecnh D\u01b0\u01a1ng. T\u1ea1i \u0110\u00f4ng Nam \u00c1, Philippines v\u00e0 Th\u00e1i Lan \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c xem l\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed3ng minh truy\u1ec1n th\u1ed1ng c\u1ee7a USA, tuy nhi\u00ean nh\u1eefng n\u0103m g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y hai qu\u1ed1c gia n\u00e0y c\u00f3 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng k\u1ebft n\u1ed1i nhi\u1ec1u h\u01a1n v\u1edbi PRC, quan h\u1ec7 kinh t\u1ebf USA – Vi\u1ec7t Nam t\u1eeb n\u0103m 2010 \u0111\u1ebfn nay c\u0169ng c\u00f3 nhi\u1ec1u b\u01b0\u1edbc ti\u1ebfn t\u00edch c\u1ef1c. Trong ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch \u0111\u1ed1i ngo\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a USA, s\u1ef1 h\u1ee3p t\u00e1c kinh t\u1ebf \u1edf \u0110\u00f4ng Nam \u00c1 tuy \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c kh\u1eb3ng \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u00e0 m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd (\u0110\u1ea1i s\u1ee9 qu\u00e1n USA t\u1ea1i Vi\u1ec7t Nam, 2019) nh\u01b0ng tr\u00ean th\u1ef1c \u0111\u1ecba th\u00ec \u0110\u00f4ng Nam \u00c1 v\u1eabn kh\u00f4ng t\u00e1ch r\u1eddi kh\u1ecfi t\u1ea7m nh\u00ecn \u1ea4n \u0110\u1ed9 D\u01b0\u01a1ng \u2013 Th\u00e1i B\u00ecnh D\u01b0\u01a1ng (Indo-Pacific Strategy) – s\u1ef1 m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng v\u00e0 s\u1eeda \u0111\u1ed5i Chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u00e1i c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng Ch\u00e2u \u00c1 \u2013 Th\u00e1i B\u00ecnh D\u01b0\u01a1ng th\u1eddi T\u1ed5ng th\u1ed1ng Barack Obama v\u00e0 ng\u0103n ch\u1eb7n s\u1ef1 tr\u1ed7i d\u1eady c\u1ee7a PRC, b\u1ea3o v\u1ec7 quy\u1ec1n l\u1ef1c USA trong khu v\u1ef1c c\u1ee7a T\u1ed5ng th\u1ed1ng Donald Trump. M\u1edbi \u0111\u00e2y nh\u1ea5t, nh\u1eefng n\u1ed5 l\u1ef1c t\u1ea1o l\u1eadp \u201cM\u1ea1ng l\u01b0\u1edbi kinh t\u1ebf th\u1ecbnh v\u01b0\u1ee3ng\u201d c\u1ee7a nh\u00f3m \u201cB\u1ed9 t\u1ee9 kim c\u01b0\u01a1ng\u201d l\u00e0 USA, Australia, Nh\u1eadt b\u1ea3n v\u00e0 \u1ea4n \u0110\u1ed9, c\u00f3 m\u1eddi th\u00eam Vi\u1ec7t Nam, H\u00e0n Qu\u1ed1c v\u00e0 New Zealand mang nhi\u1ec1u h\u1ee9a h\u1eb9n v\u1ec1 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n kinh t\u1ebf, t\u00e1i c\u1ea5u tr\u00fac chu\u1ed7i gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb m\u1edbi to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u.<\/p>\n C\u00e1c c\u01a1 ch\u1ebf h\u1ee3p t\u00e1c kinh t\u1ebf \u0111a ph\u01b0\u01a1ng \u1edf \u0110\u00f4ng Nam \u00c1 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ea3 USA v\u00e0 PRC r\u1ea5t quan t\u00e2m, c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 k\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ebfn ASEAN+3 (PRC, H\u00e0n Qu\u1ed1c, Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n), Di\u1ec5n \u0111\u00e0n \u0111\u1ed1i tho\u1ea1i ch\u00e2u \u00c1 (ACD), Di\u1ec5n \u0111\u00e0n h\u1ee3p t\u00e1c \u00c1 \u2013 \u00c2u (ASEM), Di\u1ec5n \u0111\u00e0n h\u1ee3p t\u00e1c kinh t\u1ebf ch\u00e2u \u00c1 – Th\u00e1i B\u00ecnh D\u01b0\u01a1ng (APEC), Hi\u1ec7p \u0111\u1ecbnh \u0111\u1ed1i t\u00e1c to\u00e0n di\u1ec7n khu v\u1ef1c (RCEP), Hi\u1ec7p \u0111\u1ecbnh \u0110\u1ed1i t\u00e1c to\u00e0n di\u1ec7n v\u00e0 ti\u1ebfn b\u1ed9 xuy\u00ean Th\u00e1i B\u00ecnh D\u01b0\u01a1ng (CPTPP), Khu v\u1ef1c m\u1eadu d\u1ecbch t\u1ef1 do ASEAN – PRC (ACFTA)\u2026 S\u1ef1 hi\u1ec7n di\u1ec7n trong c\u1ea5u tr\u00fac \u0111a ph\u01b0\u01a1ng c\u1ee7a USA c\u00f2n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n th\u00f4ng qua c\u00e1c \u0111\u00e0m ph\u00e1n v\u1ec1 c\u01a1 ch\u1ebf \u201cM\u1ed9t c\u1eeda\u201d ASEAN v\u1edbi h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng m\u00f4i tr\u01b0\u1eddng th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i t\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ed9ng (ACE), chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c h\u1ee3p t\u00e1c kinh t\u1ebf Ayeyawady-Chao Praya-Mekong (ACMECS) trong khu\u00f4ng kh\u1ed5 Chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c \u1ea4n \u0110\u1ed9 D\u01b0\u01a1ng \u2013 Th\u00e1i B\u00ecnh D\u01b0\u01a1ng, tuy nhi\u00ean vi\u1ec7c USA r\u00fat kh\u1ecfi Hi\u1ec7p \u0111\u1ecbnh \u0111\u1ed1i t\u00e1c xuy\u00ean Th\u00e1i B\u00ecnh D\u01b0\u01a1ng (Trans\u2013Pacific Partnership Agreement – TPP) g\u00e2y nhi\u1ec1u ti\u1ebfc nu\u1ed1i. T\u1eeb ph\u00eda PRC, c\u00e1c quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd t\u1eeb s\u00e1ng ki\u1ebfn M\u1ed9t v\u00e0nh \u0111ai, M\u1ed9t con \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng (One Belt One Road \u2013 OBOR) m\u00e0 nay l\u00e0 S\u00e1ng ki\u1ebfn V\u00e0nh \u0111ai v\u00e0 Con \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng (Belt and Road Initive \u2013 BRI) t\u1eeb n\u0103m 2013 tuy \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c Ch\u1ee7 t\u1ecbch T\u1eadp C\u1eadn B\u00ecnh v\u00e0 c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o Trung Nam H\u1ea3i k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng r\u1ea5t l\u1edbn nh\u01b0ng k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 c\u1ee7a n\u00f3 s\u1ebd c\u00f2n nhi\u1ec1u tranh lu\u1eadn.<\/p>\n 3. K\u1ebft lu\u1eadn nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u v\u00e0 ki\u1ebfn ngh\u1ecb \u0111\u1ed1i s\u00e1ch c\u1ee7a Vi\u1ec7t Nam<\/strong><\/p>\n \u200b3.1.\u00a0K\u1ebft lu\u1eadn nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u<\/strong><\/p>\n Th\u00f4ng qua d\u1eef li\u1ec7u nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u, tr\u01b0\u1edbc ti\u00ean b\u00e0i vi\u1ebft th\u1eeba nh\u1eadn USA v\u00e0 PRC \u0111\u00e3 v\u00e0 \u0111ang c\u00f3 nh\u1eefng \u0111\u00f3ng g\u00f3p quan tr\u1ecdng trong vi\u1ec7c cung c\u1ea5p c\u00e1c ngu\u1ed3n l\u1ef1c cho ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n kinh t\u1ebf c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia \u0110\u00f4ng Nam \u00c1, USA v\u00e0 PRC \u0111ang v\u00e0 s\u1ebd l\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed1i t\u00e1c kinh t\u1ebf quan tr\u1ecdng h\u00e0ng \u0111\u1ea7u c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia \u0110\u00f4ng Nam \u00c1 v\u00e0 \u0111\u01b0\u01a1ng nhi\u00ean vi\u1ec7c n\u00e2ng m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 ngo\u1ea1i giao n\u00f3i chung v\u00e0 nh\u1ea5t l\u00e0 ngo\u1ea1i giao kinh t\u1ebf v\u1edbi USA v\u00e0 PRC l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng \u01b0u ti\u00ean trong ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia \u0110\u00f4ng Nam \u00c1. Hi\u1ec7n di\u1ec7n kinh t\u1ebf c\u1ee7a PRC t\u1ea1i \u0110\u00f4ng Nam \u00c1 \u0111ang c\u00f3 ph\u1ea7n m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd h\u01a1n USA v\u00e0 trong c\u00e1c quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch \u0111\u1ed1i ngo\u1ea1i, c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia \u0110\u00f4ng Nam \u00c1 d\u1ec5 nghi\u00eang v\u1ec1 ph\u00eda PRC d\u01b0\u1edbi \u00e1p l\u1ef1c kinh t\u1ebf. V\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t kinh t\u1ebf, PRC \u0111\u00e3 s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng v\u1ecb tr\u00ed trung t\u00e2m c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh trong m\u1ea1ng l\u01b0\u1edbi s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t v\u00e0 ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia \u0110\u00f4ng Nam \u00c1, \u0111\u00e2y l\u00e0 m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng s\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh kinh t\u1ebf nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t ph\u01b0\u01a1ng th\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ecbnh h\u00ecnh th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng c\u1ea5u tr\u00fac quy\u1ec1n l\u1ef1c c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd \u1edf \u0110\u00f4ng Nam \u00c1, t\u1eeb \u0111\u00f3 t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u00ean n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf – ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u.<\/p>\n 3.2. Ki\u1ebfn ngh\u1ecb<\/strong> \u0111\u1ed1i s\u00e1ch c\u1ee7a Vi\u1ec7t Nam<\/strong><\/p>\n \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 T\u1eeb k\u1ebft lu\u1eadn nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u hi\u1ec7n di\u1ec7n kinh t\u1ebf c\u1ee7a USA v\u00e0 PRC \u1edf \u0110\u00f4ng Nam \u00c1, t\u00e1c gi\u1ea3 c\u00f3 ba ki\u1ebfn ngh\u1ecb \u0111\u1ed1i s\u00e1ch c\u1ee7a Vi\u1ec7t Nam:<\/p>\n \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \u0110\u1ea7u ti\u00ean, Vi\u1ec7t Nam c\u1ea7n x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh ngo\u1ea1i giao kinh t\u1ebf \u0111a ph\u01b0\u01a1ng l\u00e0 ch\u1ee7 l\u1ef1c trong ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch kinh t\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed1i ngo\u1ea1i.<\/p>\n \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 K\u1ebf \u0111\u1ebfn, c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 kinh t\u1ebf v\u1edbi USA v\u00e0 PRC.<\/p>\n \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 Cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng, Vi\u1ec7t Nam c\u1ea7n ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c t\u0103ng c\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p t\u00e1c kinh t\u1ebf n\u1ed9i kh\u1ed1i \u0110\u00f4ng Nam \u00c1 v\u00e0 h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 gia t\u0103ng s\u1ef1 hi\u1ec7n di\u1ec7n kinh t\u1ebf c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c c\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c kinh t\u1ebf kh\u00e1c t\u1ea1o s\u1ef1 c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng trong h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng quy\u1ec1n l\u1ef1c khu v\u1ef1c.<\/p>\n T\u00c0I LI\u1ec6U THAM KH\u1ea2O<\/strong><\/p>\n Ahmed, M.M. (1995). The Nexus of Political and Economic Factors in International Relations: A Marketing Perspective<\/em>. Springer Press.<\/p>\n Baldwin, R. & Harrigan, J. (2007). Zeros, Quality and Space: Trade Theory and<\/em> Trade Evidence<\/em>. NBER Working Paper.<\/p>\n Bhattacharyay, B.N. (2012). Benefits and Challenges of Integrating South and Southeast Asia. International Journal of Development and struction, pp.40\u201366.<\/em><\/p>\n Campbell, K. & O’Hanlon, M. (2006). Hard Power: The New Politics of National Security. Political Science Quarterly Vol. 122, No. 4, pp.706.<\/em><\/p>\n \u00a0\u0110\u1ea1i s\u1ee9 qu\u00e1n Hoa K\u1ef3 t\u1ea1i Vi\u1ec7t Nam (2019). Hoa k\u1ef3 v\u00e0 ASEAN \u2013 Quan h\u1ec7 \u0111\u1ed1i t\u00e1c b\u1ec1n v\u1eefng. https:\/\/vn.usembassy.gov\/vi\/hoa-ky-va-asean-quan-he-doi-tac-ben-vung\/<\/a><\/p>\n Easterly, W., Reshef, A., Schwenkenberg, J. (2009). The Power of Exports<\/em>. Policy Research working paper.<\/p>\n Francois, J. F. & Wignaraja, G. (2008). Economic Implications of Asian\u00a0 Integration. Global Economy Journal 6, pp.1\u201346.<\/em><\/p>\n Hausmann, R., & Rodrik, D. (2006). Doomed to Choose: Industrial Policy as Predica-ment<\/em>. Working Paper.<\/p>\n Jetin, B. & Mikic, M. (2016). ASEAN Economic Community: A Model for Asia-wide Regional Integration?<\/em>. New York: Palgrave Macmillan.<\/p>\n Joshi, R. M. (2005). International Marketing<\/em>. Oxford University Press.<\/p>\n Kemensits, P. (2018). Geopolitical Consequences of the 21st century New Maritime silk Road for southeast Asian Countries. An International Journal, Vol 4, No.1, pp.107.<\/em><\/p>\n Lequiller, F. & Blades, D. (2006). Understanding National Accounts<\/em>. OECD, pp. 139.<\/p>\n Lieberman, V. (2003). Strange parallels: Southeast Asia in global context, c. 800\u20131830, Vol. 1: Integration on the mainland<\/em>. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.<\/p>\n Majid, M. (2012). Southeast Asia between China & the United States. IDEAS Special Reports.<\/p>\n Michael Cox, M. (2012). Indispensable Nation? The United States in Southeast Asia, The new geopolitics \u00f2 southeast asia<\/em>. IDEAS Special Reports.<\/p>\n Payne, R. (2013). Global Issues<\/em>. New York, New York. Pearson.<\/p>\n Ravenhill, J. (2006). Is China an Economic Threat to Southeast Asia?. Asian Survey 46, no. 5 (2006): 653, pp.74.<\/em><\/p>\n Santasombat, Y. (2018). Chinese Capitalism and Economic Integration in Southeast Asia<\/em>. ISEAS Publishing.<\/p>\n \u00a0 Sarkodie, S. A. & Strezov, V. (2019). Effect of foreign direct investments, economic development and energy consumption on greenhouse gas emissions in developing countries. Science of the Total Environment, pp.862.<\/em><\/p>\n Shimada, R. (2018). Invisible links: Maritime trade between Japan and South Asia in the early modern period.<\/p>\n Spyros Economides & Wilson, P. (2001). The economic factor in international relations: a brief introduction<\/em>. Library of international relations. (19th). I.B. Tauris, London.<\/p>\n \u00a0Sugihara, K.O. (2019). Southeast Asia and International Trade: Continuity and Change in Historical Perspective, Paths to the Emerging State in Asia and Africa. Springer Nature Switzerland.<\/p>\n T\u1ed5ng c\u1ee5c Th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea Vi\u1ec7t Nam (2019). Th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 ch\u1ec9 ti\u00eau kinh t\u1ebf ch\u1ee7 y\u1ebfu n\u0103m 2018 v\u00e0 n\u0103m 2019. https:\/\/www.gso.gov.vn\/Default.aspx?tabid=217<\/a><\/p>\n Tr\u1ecbnh Th\u1ecb Hoa & Nguy\u1ec5n Th\u1ecb H\u1eb1ng (2018), C\u1ea5u tr\u00fac quy\u1ec1n l\u1ef1c kinh t\u1ebf \u0111ang \u0111\u1ecbnh h\u00ecnh \u1edf ch\u00e2u \u00c1 – Th\u00e1i B\u00ecnh D\u01b0\u01a1ng v\u00e0 vai tr\u00f2 trung t\u00e2m c\u1ee7a ASEAN. http:\/\/www.lyluanchinhtri.vn\/home\/index.php\/quoc-te\/item\/2654-cau-truc-q…<\/a><\/p>\n Viotti, P. R. & Kauppi, M. V. (2013). International Relations and World Politics, Fifth Edition<\/em>. New York, New York. Pearson.<\/p>\n Westad, O.A. (2012). China and Southeast Asia<\/em>. IDEAS Special Reports.<\/p>\n Wilson, E.J. (2008). Hard Power, Soft Power, Smart Power. The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science. 616 (1), pp.110-113.<\/em><\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n Nho\u0301m ta\u0301c gia\u0309: Nguy\u00ea\u0303n \u0110\u01b0\u0301c Quy\u00ea\u0300n –\u00a0 Nguy\u00ea\u0303n\u00a0Quang Trung<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1490,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[17,13],"tags":[],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ntc33.net\/lgtmqt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/81"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ntc33.net\/lgtmqt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ntc33.net\/lgtmqt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ntc33.net\/lgtmqt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ntc33.net\/lgtmqt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=81"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/ntc33.net\/lgtmqt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/81\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1491,"href":"https:\/\/ntc33.net\/lgtmqt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/81\/revisions\/1491"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ntc33.net\/lgtmqt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1490"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ntc33.net\/lgtmqt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=81"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ntc33.net\/lgtmqt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=81"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ntc33.net\/lgtmqt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=81"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}\n\n
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